The Minnesota Twins experienced another heartbreaking loss at Progressive Field, as their struggles continued with a 4-3 defeat at the hands of the Cleveland Guardians. The Twins saw a three-run lead evaporate in the bottom of the eighth inning, capped by a devastating two-run homer from Kyle Manzardo off Griffin Jax. This blown lead adds to the Twins' mounting woes, marking their 18th loss in the last 27 games.
The Twins, clinging to the third AL wild-card spot, now find their lead reduced to just 1.5 games. As recently as September 5, FanGraphs had their postseason odds at a robust 95.4%, but that figure has now dwindled to 76.4%. It’s a stark reminder of how quickly fortunes can change in the unforgiving world of Major League Baseball. Manager Rocco Baldelli acknowledged the pressing challenges ahead, emphasizing the need for consistent offensive performance. "If we're able to do what we need to do on the offensive end, we win, but we did not. We have to do better and we have to put nine innings together," Baldelli stated.
Despite their current predicament, the Twins have shown moments of resilience. However, the recent stretch has unveiled significant weaknesses, particularly in their batting performance. In 12 of their last 27 games, the Twins have failed to score more than three runs. Their batting averages reflect this struggle, hitting just .236 with a .296 on-base percentage and a .381 slugging percentage during this period. While they’ve been hitting .272 when the bases are empty, they remain the fourth worst in the game in such scenarios.
The bullpen, once a strength, has faltered considerably. Over the first 123 games, the bullpen maintained a solid 3.84 ERA and ranked tenth in the league in win probability added (plus-3.41). However, over the recent 27-game skid, their ERA has ballooned to 5.47, and their win probability added has plummeted to a league-worst minus-2.75.
“It's pretty heartbreaking. We’re kind of running on fumes as a staff,” Jax confessed after the latest loss. The rotation’s struggles are also evident, posting a 6.07 ERA during the last 27 games and averaging only 4.38 innings per start. It's a stretch that has seen the Twins play 17 games in the last 18 days, further testing their endurance and depth.
The potential return of Max Kepler offers a glimmer of hope, as does the recent waiver claim of lefty Cole Irvin from the Baltimore Orioles. Irvin, who had a 4.86 ERA in 16 starts and nine relief appearances, is seen as a versatile addition. As Derek Falvey noted, “He could be your prototypical swingman who can pitch out of the bullpen. We don't have a left-handed starter in the mix right now either. He just adds another guy that we think can help.”
Compounding the pressure, the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners are now just two games behind the Twins in the standings. The Twins hold crucial tiebreakers over both teams, but the Tigers have been particularly formidable, going 23-10 in their last 33 games.
Amid this trying period, players like Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa have made notable contributions, going a combined 5 for 15 with two doubles and a homer this month. However, these individual efforts need to be matched by collective resilience if the Twins are to reverse their fortunes.
Reflecting on the recent downturn, Baldelli remarked, “We have to find ourselves as a team. We've been looking over the last month as far as who we are and how we’re going to do this.” Pablo López echoed this sentiment, noting the shrinking margin for error: “Our margin of error keeps shrinking and shrinking. Now it's to the point where you've got to take it one day at a time, one pitch at a time, one at-bat at a time. Today will be a tough pill to swallow.”
As the Twins navigate the remainder of a challenging season, the emphasis will undoubtedly be on rediscovering the form and consistency that propelled them into playoff contention. The path ahead is fraught with uncertainty, but with strategic adjustments and renewed focus, the Twins still have a fighting chance to solidify their postseason aspirations.