In a move that reshapes the landscape of their offensive roster, the New York Giants have chosen not to franchise running back Saquon Barkley for the second consecutive year. This decision marks a significant strategic shift, pivoting away from potentially undervaluing Barkley with an offer perceived as disrespectful by Giants management.
A Strategic Repositioning
Owner John Mara expressed a preference for keeping Barkley, highlighting the internal divergence on the matter. However, financial considerations and positional priorities ultimately led to this pivotal decision. General Manager Joe Schoen emphasized that delaying the acquisition of a new running back until the second week of free agency was a deliberate tactical move. Schoen's strategy hinged on an expectation that Barkley would not command a high salary in the open market.
The Giants' anticipated market valuation for Barkley did not hold, as the Philadelphia Eagles secured the star running back with a deal worth $12.5 million per season over three years. This outcome highlights the competitive nature of NFL free agency and underscores the complexities that teams face in contract negotiations.
Data-Driven Decisions
Schoen's reluctance to renew Barkley was influenced significantly by performance data for running backs, particularly concerning age-related decline. The general consensus within NFL circles is that running backs experience a noticeable dip in productivity around the age of 27. Schoen pointed to historical data to justify his decision, stating, "The data says that running backs decline at 27." This viewpoint aligns with a broader trend in the league of becoming increasingly cautious about offering substantial contracts to players approaching or surpassing this age threshold.
Barkley, who amassed 900 carries during his tenure at Penn State and endured six grueling seasons in the NFL, is now at a critical juncture in his career. 2023 marked the age-27 season for another prominent running back, Christian McCaffrey, further adding to the validity of Schoen's data-driven approach.
Performance Beyond Age 27: Exception, Not the Rule
While there are notable exceptions to this general rule—Frank Gore excelled well into his 30s, and Aaron Jones has shown improvement post-27—these cases are rare. Derrick Henry, though still producing impressive yards per game, has seen a decline in his yards per carry, hinting at the physical toll that accumulating years and carries can exact on a running back's performance.
The End of an Era
Barkley's departure signals a significant turning point for the Giants' strategy and roster configuration. His contributions to the team over the past six years have been monumental, defining an era for New York's ground attack. However, Schoen's focus on getting "bang for your buck" and adherence to performance metrics signifies a shift towards a more calculated and financially prudent approach.
It remains to be seen how the Giants will navigate the upcoming season without Barkley's dynamic presence. In contrast, the Eagles' investment in Barkley demonstrates their willingness to bet on his continued productivity and leadership on the field.
The decision not to franchise Saquon Barkley encapsulates the challenging balance teams must strike between loyalty, performance data, and financial constraints. As the NFL continues to evolve, such data-driven decisions are likely to become the norm, reshaping the careers of many talented athletes in the process.